Evan Shapiro Unveils the Q4 Truths for 索尼, 任天堂, 迪斯尼, Meta, 和更多的

各大媒体和娱乐公司的季度收益电话会议应该能揭开这个行业真正发生的事情, but they routinely bury unflattering numbers in expert spin, 在场的媒体很少会提出足够尖锐的问题来引出真实的故事.

With 4Q earnings calls putting a bow on 2023, M&电子工业制图师埃文·夏皮罗毫不留情地为他的实时回应流媒体连接2024 开幕式主题, digging deep into the data to hold the spin doctors accountable, 让流媒体连接的参与者对这个行业有一个不加修饰的看法，这是他们在其他任何地方都无法获得的.

Read Part Three of our highlights from his keynote presentation below, 和点击这里观看完整的主题视频.

如果你错过了，请阅读第一部分和第二部分这是我们从夏皮罗的演讲中摘录的精华.

Why 索尼 should spin off its non-游戏机 electronics division

夏皮罗说他喜欢追踪索尼 because its valuation never fluctuates too much. However, he believes that they should spin off their non-游戏机 electronics division, as it is holding them down too much.

“他们的净收入下降了9%以上，因为他们的电子产品部门下降了3%，”他说. “是的, film 和 television didn't have as good a year last year as it should have, 但第四季度表现非常好. The problem is their old-school electronics business 和 their addiction to it. I think 索尼's going to get into the buying game. T在这里's major competition with Microsoft that they need to keep up with, 在游戏领域的生态系统中，索尼可能会在2024年收购大量公司. 我认为他们采取重大行动的时机已经成熟，因为现在比以往任何时候都更适合收购动视, 他们感到了威胁.”

Why EA is facing headwinds 和 a flattening net income

夏皮罗指出 EA, 就像许多小型游戏公司一样, 未来几年是否会面临来自游戏生态系统主要参与者的阻力.

“EA had a really good fourth quarter 和 then a kind of a meh year,他说. “ir live game business is growing pretty well, but their full game business is not really going to make it long term. This business has been declining year-on-year for the last couple of years. 他们的收入增加了, 但他们的净收入基本持平，因为这些游戏成本太高，开发时间太长. It's hard to cut overhead in order to get to a net income number that you like. 也就是说，它们的市值上涨了27%.”

为什么是《百家乐软件》. 这部电影给了任天堂一个非周期性的提振

夏皮罗观察到任天堂 had a great 2023, that was bolstered mainly by the $1.5 billion worldwide box office gross of the Mario Bros. 电影. He said it was “the greatest marketing tool their game platforms ever had, 无论是在游戏中还是在主机上, 所以他们去年卖出了比预期更多的游戏机和游戏，并且超出了所有的预测.“然而, this was essentially a fluke because 2023 was an “off-cycle” year for them, 因为他们没有发布新的主机.

他说:“我不认为你能指望每次都能跳出盒子。. “我也不认为你一定能影响他们的首席执行官在财报电话会议上谈到的战略, 哪个是每户销售多台主机. 我认为这是一个特殊的产品，占整个游戏生态系统的10%, 这不是很多吗, 我认为2022年真的很糟糕, 他们所经历的2023年只是一个糟糕的游戏周期或一部糟糕的电影发行, 这就是为什么我认为任天堂在2024年和2025年也是游戏生态系统的买家, 我认为许多小型游戏公司的收购时机已经成熟.”

为什么Roblox是收购的理想选择

Shapiro suggested that one company 任天堂 should consider acquiring is Roblox. “y are a massive platform for people under 25 worldwide, 但他们从来没有盈利过, 和 they're losing more money now than they have in the past,他说. “我一度认为迪斯尼应该买下它们. 迪士尼转而投资了Epic和 Fortnite我认为相对于整体而言，这是一个相当明智的做法，因为他们只需要花1美元.5 billion versus $20 or $30 billion to buy Roblox. 但我不认为Roblox，在一个生态系统中腾讯微软、索尼和任天堂, 在每年亏损数十亿美元的情况下，作为一家独立企业能否生存下去. 这有很大的好处, 最明显的是广告, but I also think 任天堂's IP in this ecosystem would be amazing.”

Additionally, he noted that Roblox cannot be played on Switch at the moment. “Imagine the increase in sales of Switches if you could,他说. So, I do think t在这里's a major opportunity 在这里, either for 索尼 or for 任天堂. 我希望他们中有人能很快拿到它. Roblox actually had a pretty good year relative to its own historical record, 它的市值也在上升.”

迪斯尼的 cutbacks are paying off more than other M&E球员

夏皮罗指出迪斯尼的大规模而痛苦的削减给他们带来的回报比其他主要国防开支的大幅削减更多&E球员. “你可以在这里看到, unlike some other players in the media apocalypse, 迪士尼已经能够将这些削减转化为某些领域的大规模营业收入增长, especially in sports 和 direct-to-consumer streaming,他说. 再加上Epic $1.50亿的投资和Spulu, 他们宣布的体育捆绑包, 感觉鲍勃·伊格尔可能已经掌握了新迪士尼的导航系统. 我们将会看到, 对他们来说，这将是非常有趣的一年，也是他们最显著的收入来源之一."

However, an area of trouble can be seen for 迪斯尼 in its film franchises. “ 奇迹特许经营遇到了真正的麻烦，就像星球大战 franchise, except if you look at their television shows,他说. “我不认为超级碗期间有漫威系列的广告, for the first time I can remember for a decade. So, 艾格似乎对事情有了更好的把握, 但他的“削减增长”策略能否长期奏效仍有待观察. That said, 迪斯尼's market cap is up 23% just this year.”

Meta会大幅反弹

夏皮罗称为 Meta “同比冠军”.“虽然梅塔在2022年表现糟糕，但与之相比，看起来不错并不难, 他指出，他们能够在不削减核心收入的情况下削减开支.

One area of potential risk for Meta is that it is a “99% ad business,他说. So, 在下一次广告低迷时期, 梅塔的日子会很不好过, 就像上次一样. This business is not yet protected as much as they like to talk about [with] 元宇宙。和 AI. But they are at an all-time high market valuation, up 175% year-on-year.”

Why 提前 didn’t impress Wall Street despite improving numbers

尽管提前第四季度营收和净收入大幅增加(由于数字广告经济的复苏和削减), 华尔街对此并不热衷.

“That's because the revenues for the full year are not up 在这里,他说. “对任何数字平台来说，这都将是一项非常艰难的业务，要对抗大型科技死星, 包括 TikTok, by the way, which doesn't do earnings reports the way that we do. So this stock has been punished just year to date, down 30%.”

Why 交易台 reflects the true state of the healthy ad economy

夏皮罗发现交易台 is one of the best examples of improvement in the ad economy.

“y are absolutely on fire right now,他说. “Net income in the fourth quarter is up 37%, 和 revenue is up 23%. 这家公司在发展高级受众和广告方面投入了大量资金, 这真的给他们带来了回报. 他们还在零售媒体上投入巨资, so the Trade Desk is st和ing everyw在这里 the ball is going. 他们以一种很少有其他公司涉足的方式，在零售广告经济中投入了大量精力亚马逊和沃尔玛 are really cutting the course of how the new economy is going to be played. 他们是更多交易的中心，我认为很多人不一定能接受, 但另一方面, 考虑到这个平台的力量，没有必要有那么多的选择. 他们度过了美好的2023年, 他们将迎来一个令人惊叹的2024年，因为他们是AD经济的发展方向.”

Watch full sessions from the February 流媒体 Connect 在这里.

We'll be back in person for 纽约流媒体 on May 20-22, 2024, with Evan Shapiro hosting 和 presenting his closing keynote, "Next Is Now: The State Of The 流媒体 Industry." 点击这里查看完整的程序并注册.

所有信息图表由 ESHAP.

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